European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity.
Key findings
Pan-European flexibility needs linked to generation and demand variability are projected to double between 2025 and 2033 across all examined timeframes. The need for short-duration flexibility and ramping capabilities—particularly relating forecast errors and system operation—is expected to roughly double by 2030, varying based on country size and generation mix. vRES generation shortage events might occur 2 to 4 times annually, lasting on average up to 6-10 days and resulting in a vRES generation gap ranging between just a few MWh up to several TWh in the worst scenarios for the largest countries. Prolonged shortages in vRES generation are expected to have regional impact, affecting multiple neighbouring zones simultaneously, heightening the risk of system stress and reducing the mitigation effect of interconnections. Nevertheless, interconnectors will play a crucial role in mitigating flexibility needs across various timeframes, except at the time of prolonged shortages in vRES generation that affect multiple countries.
Source : https://www.entsoe.eu/system-flexibility/ (2024)
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